What is happening in Libya?
Is Libya Safe?
Libya poses unique challenges to shipping. The perception of vast instability across swathes of the country is broadly accurate, however is too simplistic when assessing risk to commercial operations.
As a result of linear reporting that focuses purely on narratives of conflict, we are left with a plethora of information which leads many businesses to believe Libya ports present a prohibitive environment for trade. This is not the case...
Dryad Global has considerable experience in bringing clarity and understanding to complex trading environments and with our highly detailed analysis, we are able to assist you in taking advantage of commercial opportunities in such areas.
Empowered by Information
The security situation in Libya is in a constant state of flux, this has impact on the ports and infrastructure that support the country. If we can understand events, information and the wider geo-political forces at play with precision, we can identify and mitigate against real risk and subsequently capitalise on opportunities. By focusing on facts and applying forensic analysis to information we can empower our clients with a real understanding of the risks allowing them to make informed and profitable decisions. Through focused, detailed information our clients are empowered to unlock trade and commercial opportunities far ahead of their competition.
What is going on in Libya?
Libya continues to remain fractious and politically unstable. Legally controlled by the Government of National Accord (GNA) in Tripoli, Libya has seen a divide between West and East, with the Libyan National Army establishing parallel semi-autonomous control over the East of Libya. Following a LNA intervention to take Tripoli and decisively end the conflict, the GNA successfully launched a counter attack and pushed LNA forces back Eastwards along the Libyan coast. Both sides have stopped at Sirte, a town in Central Libya which is now the dividing point between sides, and potentially the future spark of the next wave of conflict in Libya. Libya’s recent divisions in many ways reflect its pre-unification divisions, when Tripolitania controlled the West of Libya, and Cyrenaica the East. Libya’s South, the Fezzan, remains largely uncontrolled by both sides, and its porous Southern border compounds the issues Libya faces with an influx of migrants.
Besides the LNA and GNA, the other key institution in modern Libya is the National Oil Corporation (NOC), which controls Libyan oil reserves and their generated revenues. Largely due to Libya’s status as a rentier economy which gains the majority of its income from the export of oil, the NOC wields huge influence within Libya, and is a key part, along with the tribal elders, of the wider patchwork of actors within Libya. Libyan oil output has currently trickled to a halt, following an embargo which is being enforced by the LNA. The grievances which generated this action emerge from the ongoing conflict but in a wider sense are nested within regional grievances over the allocation of funds from oil revenue.
Outside actors continue to become increasingly involved in Libya, and in many ways the ongoing conflict is beginning to become a proxy war. The GNA remains the UN-recognised government and therefore enjoys international legitimacy. In recent years it has faced increasing diplomatic, and now material and military support from Turkey. Meanwhile the LNA is supported by the UAE and Egypt, which has threatened to intervene militarily should the GNA and Turkey attack Sirte and push East. Russia also remains deeply involved in Libya, and has openly supported the LNA in recent years. This has included the deployment of Wagner Group mercenaries, who played a key role in the LNA assault upon Tripoli.
Despite the ongoing flux which is present within Libya, commercial opportunities abound and Libyan ports when not the focus of fighting can provide stable areas to operate so long as precautions are taken, and risk assessments are up to date and accurate.